For the All Progressives
Congress, (APC), the July 14 gubernatorial election in Ekiti is like the epic
battle of two bitter, ancient football rivals. In the first finals, the
prejudiced referee acted like a striker, midfielder and linesman for one
side. In this new battle, the once defeated side now has another
chance for a rematch without the hindrance of a partisan referee. This time
around, the incumbent, Mr AyodeleFayose and his crony, Mr OlusolaElenka will no
longer have free kick of the ball. The Federal might, which has always been
Fayose’s spring, now hosts his imminent pitfall. But one big mistake is for the
once defeated side to field the same team, use the same strategy without
tactical alteration. Figuratively, the defeated team is currently choosing its
line-up. On May 5, its captain will be picked.
Four years after the defeat of
the All Progressives Congress, (APC), the party is desperate to reclaim a
battered image. However, even with the assumed backing of the Federal
authorities, the defeat of Mr Fayose and his crony is not given. The
possibility of APC dodging another devastating downfall depends on who wins the
primary election slated for this Saturday. While Fayose has given a clear
direction on his path, the APC is enmeshed on a riotous, trampling race that
may produce a candidate who may be another Fayose’s piecemeal. This is the
grave error that APC leadership might commit. This is the dangerous path they
might take to the party’s peril. To win the election, the APC has the historic
responsibility to organize a primary that is not driven by cash nor motivated
by the short-sightedness of a few cabal in the core-North who has been rumoured
to be hell-bent on influencing the primary with enormous resources to the
detriment of long term stability and prosperity of the commonwealth.
To win the main election, APC
needs a sharp break from the past. The party needs a bold, decisive, courageous
and iron-cast figure whose sneeze will send Fayose scampering. The party also
needs a candidate that will not betray the party. In the context of the
realignment on-going in the country, there is the fact that an APC candidate
without long standing ideology may be swayed to lead an onslaught against the
same APC in the coming years. There are indeed real dangers that Fayose
actually has a mole or moles among the aspirants. This is the reason why
flirtatious politicians-and some of them are contestants in the APC
primary-with a rich history of promiscuity and ambivalence, must be avoided
like a plague. It is better to hack them now, despite their pretences, than to
have to live with the atrocities they will hatch.
Apart from these
considerations, the APC leadership must be awake to the political realities in
Eikiti State without which the party will commit dreadful errors that will make
her flounder and be washed away like feeble grains. In the first place, the APC
needs to pick the candidate with the highest propensity to win the governorship
race. A key consideration is to understand the balance of political forces,
voter’s strength, where it is most potent and the history of voting patterns in
the state.
Already, Fayose has scored a
key political point by picking his candidate from Ikere, a key city in Ekiti.
How does the APC counter this move? There are 2, 195 polling units in Ekiti
State. Out of this, Ikere has 86 polling units. The number of registered voters
in Ikere is 65,000. The possibility of Ekiti APC producing an Ikere candidate
in the next primary has been hampered by the fact that five APC candidates have
emerged from this historic town. Though Dr WoleOluyede was unanimously agreed
by a powerful section in the city, the other four have spat defiantly in the
sky and captured the sputum, in anger, with a splash on their
faces. The four are going ahead with equal momentum.
Ikere also has to contend with
cultural divisions occasioned by the gulf along her polarized traditional
institutions. Ekiti South has the highest aspirants of 11; Oye
council is the next with the highest number of 5; Ekiti central 7; North 7;
Gbonyin 3; Ekiti East 2; IseOrun 2; IrepodunIfelodun 2; Ijero 2; IdoOsi; Ekiti
East 2; Emure 2. In all, there are 33 aspirants out of which 27 have
been cleared by the screening committee. Considering the balance of forces, all
the 27 aspirants will have to scramble for delegates in 15 LGs, except Ado
which has only one aspirant, Senator BabafemiOjudu. Ikere for instance will
split between 5 candidates. Ido-Osi will be a battle ground between two
aspirants. Oye where Dr KayodeFayemi, Senator Ayo Arise, Bimbo Daramola and
others come from will be fiercely contested by 5 aspirants.
The only LG that stands out is
Ado, with 182 delegates, by far the highest in the entire state and the most
cohesive. Ikere has about 56 delegates. Ado Ekiti, where Senator
BabafemiOjudu comes from will be going as one team. From the prism
of logic and common sense, all what Ado needs is to win
pockets of support from other LGs to clinch the trophy. There is no
doubt that a candidate from Ado will strengthen the potential of APC winning
the July 14 poll.
Traditionally, Ado has always
been the most remarkable electoral determinant of Ekiti voting outlook.
At the advent of electoral politics
in Ekiti history, it took some time for the Action Group, (AG) to be able to
penetrate the entire Ekiti province for no other reason that the initial Ado support
for the NCNC. Not until the trend was broken was AG, which came to Ado in the
1940s, able to overwhelm Ekiti area.
In 1955, for instance, one of
the first major political contests took place between Awodimula from Ode Ekiti,
Chief Familoni from IdoEkiti and JE Babatola from Ado Ekiti. Babatola won in
the AG primary and won the main election.
In 2003 elections, OtunbaNiyi
Adebayo won in 12 of the 16 LGs. Fayose turned the table with votes
from Ado. No election has been held in Ekiti State without Ado being the major
pathfinder. In the last election for instance, Ado had 137,155 out of 733,766
registered voters trailed by IrepodunIfelodun 54,085; Ijero 49,417 votes,
Ikole 49, 390; Ekiti East 47, 288 and Ikere with a distant 45,611.
Ado had 59,480 votes, Ijero 26,
589; Ikole 26, 252 with Ikere at a distant 25,889. There is the fear that
irrespective of the contradictions, if APC picks a candidate from Ikere, the
votes will be shared decisively between the APC and the PDP whose candidate is
also from Ikere. Picking a candidate elsewhere apart from Ado will
strengthen Fayose who is waiting in the wings to pick his deputy from
Ado-Ekiti. The only way to neutralize him is to pick the APC candidate from
Ado.
Primary elections are often
determined first by kinsman loyalty of delegates. As it is, Ado presents a
strategic posting as the most audacious bride.While Ikere has not produced a
governor in Ekiti, it has produced the governor of old Ondo State. Ado has
neither produced the Governor of Ekiti nor the governor of old Ondo State. Most
of most significant towns have cultural and blood-bound ties with Ado. The
cultural institutions in Ado historically has unprecedented network across the
towns and villages in Ekiti which has been energized since Ojudu joined the
race for overwhelming victory. It must be noted that in the past, Ado often
deliberately play the role of the kingmaker by refusing to produce a
governorship aspirant, but this time around, the entire city with a
zeal and determination never before seen, has chosen Senator Ojudu as the one
and only aspirant on the platform of the APC. Good enough for the APC, Ojudu
has a rich history of radical struggle, consistency, bravery, iron-cast nerve
and infact, he is the lion that can scare stiff Fayose and his
agent. He performed this same feat in 2011 when he scored 64,000
plus votes in the Senatorial election dusting Fayose almost thrice. Certainly,
the clincher of the APC will be to pick its candidate from Ado-Ekiti. Omission
of this calculation will be another costly error that may plunge the APC into
another whirlwind of regret and defeat. Fayose is like a vulture, hovering to
see if on May 5, APC will bring forth another carcass in the form of a weakling
that will give him another cheap victory. A candidate from Ado is one sure way
to cut down the PDP like grass and make it wither like a flower without
nurture. The APC leadership has the choice to make or mar.
Michael
Akinsuyi wrote from Lagos
No comments:
Post a Comment